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« Doug Casey: Exception Among Equities | Main | Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited: Set to Soar Higher »
Tuesday
Sep212010

How High Will Gold Gold This Fall?

Major Surges in Gold 22 sep 2010.JPG


By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey's Gold & Resource Report

The gold price has been hitting ever-new records over the past couple weeks, now closing in on the $1,300 mark. Some gold followers are saying this is extremely bullish for the near-term price since it broke so decisively through its June 28th high of $1,261. If they're right, how high might this particular surge go?

While the endgame for gold is far off in my opinion, it's worth looking at short-term surges, especially if you're trying to determine to buy at a particular level. Plus, it's just darn fun.

I looked at all major surges in the gold price since 2001. What constituted a "surge," in my opinion? Any large jump or uptrend that's clearly visible on an annual chart. So instead of looking at yearly gains or seasonal tendencies, I simply measured the percent gain of all big upswings that were the most obvious, regardless of when they occurred.

I put the findings to a chart.
 


You can see there haven't been that many large price advances, about one annually until last year. You'll also notice the biggest "surge" this year is comparatively small. In fact, you have to go back to mid-2001 to find one that didn't advance at least 20%. Meaning, we may very well be in for a bigger surge yet this year. 

The average of all surges in the gold price since 2001 is 23.5%. If we hit the average, gold would spike to $1,428 in the current run-up. Note that I measured from the bottom of the surges, not the breakout point; the bottom I used in our case was $1,157 on July 28.

If our current surge were to match the 35.5% biggie, gold would hit $1,567. A 20.8% advance (the smallest of those greater than 20%) would take it to $1,397. With these numbers, Bud Conrad's call for $1,350 gold by year-end would be met and surpassed.

The only caveat I'd point out is that we logged three surges last year, the only time that occurred in the current bull market. On that basis, it's certainly possible we could be due for a breather this year and have thus seen our biggest advance. But given the current global economic and monetary circumstances, I wouldn't place a bet on that. A survey of 29 analysts by Bloomberg a couple weeks ago reported they see gold averaging $1,500 in 2011 – and most analysts tend to make conservative projections.

Note that there were always small pullbacks in the time periods I looked at; it was never a straight line. So the recent minor drawdown was typical of what occurred during these surges. Also, there were always corrections or at least periods of consolidation after the surge and before the next big upswing.

Regardless of what gold does over the next few months, I think 20%+ surges will continue throughout this bull market, with the occasional 30% punch. And a doubling of the gold price in a matter of months is also likely in our future, a sure sign of the Mania phase. Gold surged 128.5% from October 8, 1979, to January 21, 1980. A similar vault today would have the price jumping from, say, $2,400, to $5,484 in less than four months. Yes, I think that's entirely possible and perhaps probable.

How high will gold ultimately go? I look at it this way. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe isn't over. The sovereign debt crisis in the U.S. hasn't started. We will almost certainly see more quantitative easing (i.e., money printing). We have artificially low interest rates. The U.S. dollar is basically at the same level it was two years ago. We have no official inflation and certainly no big inflation. Less than 5% of U.S. citizens own any form of gold. Central banks are widely expected to be net buyers of gold again this year. Investment demand for gold is still only 32% of all uses of gold, a far cry from the 54% level reached in 1979. I could go on, but you get the idea.

The only way you can benefit from these surges is to be long gold. If you haven't been a part of one, I guarantee you it's a lot of fun. Gold is more important than that, of course; it's your personal safe-haven asset. Buy on pullbacks, slowly increasing your holdings so that what you own makes a difference in your portfolio, both for asset protection and profit potential.

And then, hang on.

[The most profitable way to take advantage of a surge in gold is to own gold stocks. But not all precious metal equities equally benefit from gold's advances. To own the best producers in the gold industry, try a risk-free trial of Casey's Gold & Resource Report…it’s only $39 a year. Click here for more.]









Over in our options trading den they have updated the chart to show all the closed trades as of today, so you can see exactly how it is going, please click this link.



Stay on your toes and have a good one.

Got a comment then please add it to this article, all opinions are welcome and very much appreciated by both our readership and the team here.

On Friday, 27th August 2010, we closed another successful trade banking a profit of 79.46% on Call Options on Silver Wheaton.

The latest trade from our options team was slightly more sophisticated in that we shorted a PUT as follows:

On Friday 7th May our premium options trading service OPTIONTRADER opened a speculative short term trade on GLD Puts, signalling to short sell the $105 May-10 Puts series at $0.09. On Tuesday the 11th May we bought back the puts for just $0.05, making a 44.44% profit in just 4 days, with more positions opened yesterday. Drop by and take a look.


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Reader Comments (3)

gold and silver stocks drop over 70% of the time in OCtober. Will this year be the other30%.? Should we ride this out if they do drop?

September 22, 2010 | Unregistered Commentergold bug

I can't understand why any small investor would want to buy paper (fiat) gold? It does not make sense. Too much paper is the heart of the problem now.

September 23, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterJohn Sparks

I almost certainly would not have contemplated this was valuable two or 3 months back, yet it is fascinating how age evolves the manner you respond to stuff, many thanks for the article it genuinely is great to see anything sensible now as opposed to the regular rubbish masquerading as blogs and forums at the net. Regards

October 3, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterRickey Decraene

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