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Thursday
Feb182010

Peter Grandich’s $50,000 Challenge to the Bears

Peter Grandich.JPG
Peter Grandich

George Soros.JPG
George Soros

Jon Nadler.JPG
Jon Nadler

This has just been posted by Peter Grandich at 11:10 PM on Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

I will wager $50,000 U.S. Dollars that gold closes above  $1,200 before below $1,000 basis the Comex spot price. I  challenge gold perma bears like Kaplan, Nadler and Soros to be the first to put their money up where my mouth is.

I welcome any and all media to make this offer known. It’s good for 48 hours from this post!

This challenge was made at 11:10PM EST February 17, 2010

I urge followers to send this challenge to the media.


*****************


Please send us your opinion on the above especially if you have a 'feeling' that one of the above mentioned bears will rise to the challenge.

Footnote: Last night we met up with Doug Casey and Rick Rule in a nice cafe/bar in the center of the universe, Auckland, New Zealand, will post shortly so keep an eye.

All the best.

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Thursday
Feb182010

IMF Gold Sales

IMF Logo.JPG

IMF Gold Sales we think are best explained by this missive from Jim Sinclair and his thoughts on the proposed IMF gold sales, followed by an explanation by Trader Dan as we could not have put it better.


I agree fully with Trader Dan's assessment of the IMF statement. This is a duplicate of the IMF action in the 1970s. It turned out to be the most positive event as each time the IMF held an auction of their gold they facilitated entry for large investors at singular prices.
 
It will be no different this time around. Gold will rise because of IMF selling as it did in the 1970s.
 
I assure you that history will repeat itself on the same circumstances.
 
Respectfully,

Jim
jsmineset.com



****************************************
 
Dear Friends,
 
After the pit session trade had already closed for the day in New York, news came out that the IMF was planning on selling the remainder of 403.3 tons of gold, 191.3 to be exact, on the open market. Gold was immediately taken down hard in the thin trading conditions, dropping more than $14 on the day.
 
There are several things about this that should be noted. First is the timing - it comes on the heels of a resumption of the uptrend in gold with many technical indicators having moved into the buy mode. It also coincides with another brand new all time high in the price of Gold priced in Euro terms at the London PM Fix.
 
Those of us who have been around the gold market long enough know full well that the timing of this announcement is therefore no coincidence but was timed to attempt to derail the returning bullish sentiment in the yellow metal. Why announce the sale publicly which is guaranteed to receive a lower price for the metal than if the IMF had just quietly sold the metal into the market. This is reminiscent of then Prime Minister Gordon Brown's announcement that England intended to sell its hoard of gold. That guaranteed that Britain would receive the lowest price possible.
 
Secondly, China was one-upped by India's purchase of some 200 tons of gold late last year and got caught flat footed. The spin on this gold sale is that the IMF announcing that they would sell the gold into the open market means that Central Bank demand for gold is not as vibrant as the market was led to believe. That is an interesting tall tale. The simple truth is that Central Banks do not generally buy gold and announce their intentions to do so beforehand. Neither do they tend to buy when prices are moving higher as the momentum based hedge funds do. Time and time again we have seen that the CBs buy gold during episodes of price weakness. Once news hit the wire last year that India had bought 200 tons of gold, the price never looked back and shot straight to $1220+. Any Asian Central Bank that missed buying the gold as a result is certainly not going to panic and rush into the market to obtain it. They are waiting for lower prices where they will acquire the metal. To state therefore that Central Bank demand for gold must not be as robust as originally thought is quite shallow analysis.
 
My view is that this announcement means nothing in the longer term scheme but was rather a cheap trick to take the market lower. We have already seen this week how some noted elites were pooh-poohing gold and trash talking the metal all the while they were acquiring a position in it. Nothing ever changes in this gold market. It is still one of the least transparent markets on the planet and perhaps the most prone to official sector interference.
 
Do not be disturbed by the news. It is probably going to be a one or two day wonder and then that will be it. Gold will then go back to trading the currencies taking its cues from the action in the Dollar.
 
Incidentally, this sale is supposedly going to be phased in over an extended period of time. Rest assured, the IMF would love nothing better than to sell the whole 191 tons in one lump sum to another Asian Central Bank.
 
Respectfully,
Trader Dan

All the best.

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Wednesday
Feb172010

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited Record Everything: quarterly, annual revenue, gold production, gold reserves, resources et al.

Agnico Logo 31 July 2009.JPG


A news release just issued by Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) today reported quarterly net income of $47.9 million, or $0.31 per share for the fourth quarter of 2009. This result includes a non-cash foreign currency translation loss of $7.8 million, or $0.05 per share, stock option expense of $6.3 million, or $0.04 per share, and a gain on sale of investments of $3.7 million, or $0.02 per share. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the Company reported net income of $21.9 million, or $0.15 per share.

Fourth quarter 2009 cash provided by operating activities was $53.7 million up from cash used by operating activities of $46.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, primarily due to 83% higher gold production and significantly higher metal prices.

"Earnings and cash flow increased significantly this quarter on the back of record quarterly gold production as five mines are now contributing to the Company's gold production base", said Sean Boyd, Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "In addition, with the start of our new Meadowbank mine this quarter, and our record gold reserve base, we are well positioned to continue to increase our gold production and grow earnings and cash flow per share", added Mr. Boyd.

Fourth quarter 2009 highlights include:

- Strong earnings and cash flows - five operating mines, sixth mine
commissioning

- Record Gold Production - record quarterly production of 163,276
ounces contributed to record annual gold production of 492,972 ounces
- Good Cost Control - minesite costs per tonne targets achieved at the
steady state mines, LaRonde and Goldex. New mines showing steady
improvement

- Record gold reserves - gold reserves rise 0.3 million ounces net of
production, to a record 18.4 million ounces(1)

- Record gold resources - gold resources(2) rise to a record level with
an increase of 28% over 2008, even after conversion of 0.8 million
ounces to reserves in 2009

All bodes well for the old buzzard having had some difficulties of late in terms of getting their new mines started, so lets hope that they can push on from here.

To read the article in full please click here.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol of AEM and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol of AEM.TO.


All the best.

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Wednesday
Feb172010

Gold Breaks Up Out Of Declining Wedge Formation

Gold Breaks Up Out Of Decling Wedge Formation

As we mentioned last week, gold had formed a bullish declining wedge formation, and we anticipated a break up and out, rather than downwards.

Well as the above chart shows, gold broke up out of this wedge formation in recent trading. We view this as a very positive move for gold, and expect the yellow metal to rally sharply from here.

One can also see that the MACD indicator has given a positive, bullish crossover, adding more weight to the technical argument that gold is about to embark on a rally.

Therefore hold on to your gold and gold stock positions as the next couple of months should see them soar.


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Tuesday
Feb162010

Colombia Is Open for Business

One third of FDI Went to Mining in the 1st Half of 2009.JPG



By David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research

Following a recent group email exchange with Louis James, the truly tireless editor of Casey’s International Speculator currently kicking rocks in Colombia, one of the non-Casey Research participants in the exchange commented, “You guys are doing it right. How many research shops have emails that start out with ‘Greetings from Medellin’?”

This is not Louis’s first trip to Colombia but just one of many. This time he is there to update his notes on what’s going on down there, now that some semblance of political stability has reignited interest on the part of large and small exploration/mining companies alike in Colombia’s rich mineral endowment.

The Colombian economy, with its free-market approach, has fared better than its Latin American neighbors, and foreign investment is starting to flow in. In 2009, President Uribe attracted US$8.6 billion gross foreign direct investment (FDI).

As you can see in the chart below, more than 30% of total 2009 FDI in Colombia was in the mining and nearly as much in the oil sector.


I asked Louis to share his impressions on how the security situation has changed in the country over the past four years or so that he has been traveling there. During the early trips, he had military escorts and private bodyguards accompanying him into the bush for his explorations.

So, how do things stand now?

Here’s his report…

Hola,

Oddly enough, where the mountains were once the guerillas' strongholds, now they are relatively safe. Basically, where there's good infrastructure, the army can deploy easily and the rebels don't stand a chance. Up by Ventana and Greystar, I'm told, some 300 guerillas were cornered and wiped out to the last man. No prisoners in this war. So, they have been pushed out into the most remote regions, which are out on the jungle plains where there are no roads. One project I wanted to see is on the edge of those plains to the west, and the company politely said it was not yet safe... but that there's a new army base nearby, so in time, the violence will move away.

Medellin is a much nicer and more modern city than most expect. There's a modern urban rail system, linked by gondolas, like big ski lifts. Lots of new high-tech architecture, and the city is relatively clean and well-kept for a large (4M) Latin American city. But all the nice buildings have gates and security, of course.

I don't think I took any undue risks on this trip. I did have a military escort one day, but it might have been more for show. (I'm more concerned about my trip to the Philippines next week – a friend of mine with a Filipina wife tells me his family won't let him go where I'm going.) The Colombians I speak with are much more relaxed and so happy La Violencia is over for them.
Every time I come here, I like the place more and more for investment. I was told today that Colombia has never nationalized any private enterprise, and you know, for all its troubles, I can't remember a time when it did. I was also told Colombia has never defaulted on debt payments, etc., and I can't recall an instance of that, either. I've asked a new friend who works for a Colombian brokerage house for confirmation of these facts, which seem very significant to me, as they suggest that the current boom isn't just because of Uribe's personal values, but because his values are echoed by many Colombians.

I just came back from a dinner at which several key Colombian players were present. They were commenting on all the Johnny-come-latelies flocking to the area, and how many were picking up projects in parts of Colombia that are still dangerous.

It occurs to me that if one of these fools goes into an area where there's still guerilla activity and gets himself or one of his geologists kidnapped or killed, it could scare investors away from all Colombia plays.

I'm not sure that there's anything that can be done about that, and the longer nothing happens, the better, as the guerilla activity continues melting away. But for a while, all Colombia plays could face a sudden and serious drop in share price if some Vancouverite wins a Darwin Award down here.

I'm going to the Philippines to see a new low-cost, high-grade producer I've been looking at for some time, and another development story, but mostly to get a feel for the current realities of mining and exploration in the Philippines. It's just me, not a big tour bus full of hotshots, making the trip, so I shouldn't attract undue attention.

I'll keep my eyes open and, of course, have more to say in our publications soon...
The opportunities in the junior resource sector can be truly stunning, with overnight triple-digit gains not unusual. But any sector that can go up that much can fall back just as sharply – so thorough due diligence is essential.

The good news is that if you do the homework, you can eliminate much of the risks, giving yourself a much better shot at the upside. But there is nothing easy or simple about the process – which is why Louis and other researchers on the team are on the road more or less constantly.

Fortunately, you don’t need to travel to the jungles of Colombia or the Philippines to profit from the best resource plays in the world. Read more here

All the best.

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Tuesday
Feb162010

Randgold Resources Limited: Options Trade Up 21%

Randgold Chart 17 February 2010.JPG

This is a quick update on the Call Options we purchased on the 9th February 2010 on Randgold Resources Limited (GOLD) the June 2010 series with a strike price of $75.00 (GUD Jun 19 ‘10 $75 Call) for which we paid $5.50 per contract for them. The session on NYSE finished with the bid at $6.70 and the ask at $6.90 registering a gain of around 21%.

It has to be said though that there were no transactions during this session as the asking price rose quicker than the bidders could up their bids to bag a few contracts. Randgold's stock had a great day putting on 4.41% to add $3.12 and close at $73.88. The dollar moved dramatically lower and gold responded with a rise of around $20.00 to trade at $1117.40 as we write.

Taking a quick peek at the above chart we can see that Randgold looks to be making a move to higher ground having reversed the recent decline, the RSI has the room to much higher and the crossover on the MACD bodes well for the stock.

Randgold has been kind to us in the past and we have waited patiently for this opportunity to present itself, so lets hope that this progress continues and we can bank a few bucks.

Randgold Resources Limited has a market capitalization of $6.65 billion, a 52 week trading range of $40.41 to $90.30, a P/E ratio of 89.09 with an average volume of 1.0 million shares traded.

Randgold Resources Limited trades on the NASDAQ under the symbol of GOLD and on the London Stock Exchange under the symbol of RRS.

All the best.

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Tuesday
Feb162010

Options Trading Questions 17 February 2010

Some of our readers have expressed a certain amount of trepidation regarding the trading of options, asking us how difficult and complex is it. Its true it can be complicated if you are a sophisticated and experienced trader and wish to utilize the many ways to achieve your objective, but it doesn't have to be so.

You can trade Options in an easy manner. As an example, our Options trading service sent out the following email instruction during the trading session on the NYSE:

(Note that units represent a percentage of your portfolio)

7 Oct 09
We have just bought the following options and are signalling BUYS on these GLD calls:

MAR-10 $110 @ $4.20 - 5 Units Allocated

a month or so later we sent out this signal to sell these Call options as follows:

10 Nov 09
Sell GLD Mar-10 $110 Calls

We have just closed the following positions:

GLD MAR-10 $110.00 CALLS - Sold at $5.30
- 5 Units purchased at $4.20 (26.19% Profit)

As you can see it is not an 'if or but' situation, it is a straight forward Buy and then around a month later it is a straight forward Sell. There are explanatory updates sent to our subscribers in between those dates but these are kept very short and to the point as you need to know the time, not the workings of the clock. Prior notice of out intentions is also signalled to our subscribers in order that they can prepare to take advantage of the up-coming signals.

We have closed our last 7 trades, with an average gain of 51.17% in an average of 37 days per trade. These are not our best trades they are the actual trades that we have closed out recently. As you can see they are not world record breaking Options trades but they all returned a reasonable profit in a short time. Now, if you have something more profitable then we suggest that you stick with it and tell us, if not then give us a shot at spicing up your returns, please click here.



Tuesday
Feb162010

Dollar Down and Gold Up

USD Chart 16 Feb 2010.JPG





Its 6.00am UK time and the USD is drifting south in Asian Markets as the above chart of the dollar shows and inversely gold is heading north to trade around the $1107.60 and silver is also shaking a leg up $0.21, as we write.

As we mentioned on the 10th February 2010 when gold was sitting at $1076.70:

In recent trading, gold prices appear to have made a declining wedge formation, which is good news for gold bulls since a falling wedge formation after an uptrend usually means a break out to the upside, rather than one to the downside. In addition to this, technical indicators such as the MACD, STO and RSI are in oversold territory. So whilst there could still be some sideways action ahead, it appears that the worst of this correction is over and an excellent buying opportunity is upon us.

So we now have gold pushing up against the top of the channel of the declining wedge and hopefully it can break through and set us on the road to another rally, which would lift stock prices and set fire to our Call Options.


All the best.

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Saturday
Feb132010

Sooner or Later, You’ll Invest Abroad

Gold Production per Region 13 February 2010.JPG

Jeff Clark, Editor of Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

Many conventional U.S. brokers are relatively clueless when it comes to gold stocks. If you asked them to name one, chances are it would be a domestic producer, one with assets located primarily in North America. But that’s not where the big money will be made over the next decade.

To start, here’s something that will make you better informed than the typical traditional broker: take a look at where gold is currently being dug up around the world.


Tally it up, and North America accounts for only 16.3% of total global gold production. In other words, 83.7% of all the new gold every year comes from outside our continent.

Further, of the 15 largest gold deposits in the world, only five are in the U.S., Canada, or Mexico. Meaning, two-thirds are in regions where you don’t get cell phone coverage and the natives don’t speak your language.

The picture gets even sharper when you see the regions where production is increasing, vs. areas where it’s declining.


Gold Production Decreasing in US.JPG


Several countries where gold has been traditionally mined, such as South Africa, Australia, and the U.S., are suffering production declines, while other areas, like China and South America, are just now starting to rev up.

In other words, not only is more gold being dug up outside our borders, more is being found there, too.

This has obvious implications for the gold stock investor who recognizes that the momentum is clearly behind the emerging countries. One geologist told me that some of these prospects are like Nevada was 100 years ago; wide open and full of gold deposits just waiting to be discovered.

Yes, there is risk, but the political winds are shifting in a more pro-mining direction here as well. In the U.S., for example, some members of Congress continue to promote a bill that could dramatically harm mining in the states, while China and many parts of South America are opening their doors to foreign companies. What would you rather invest in – a country trying to woo your investment dollars or one that is scheming to find new ways to take more of them away from you?

Gaia the Earth Goddess didn’t ask where we wanted our gold and silver deposited. And it is the underexplored – and in some cases the unexplored – regions that offer the most potential for new discoveries, greater production, and thus, higher investment returns.

We currently recommend our subscribers keep 1/3 of their assets in cash, 1/3 in physical gold, and 1/3 in other investments, including top-notch gold proxies and stocks. To find out more about the most trustworthy precious metals dealers… where to safely store your gold… which large- to medium-cap gold stocks and mutual funds are the best… see our FREE special report The 3 Best Ways to Invest in Gold. Click here to read it now.







All the best.

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Friday
Feb122010

The Tiring Nature Of Media Propaganda

Jim Sinclair.JPG
Jim Sinclair

Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com sent us this missive about the constant stream of mis-information we are being fed and gold prices reaction to it.

Doesn't it get tiring to hear the propaganda of government and business over the airwaves telling us exactly what isn't correct?
 
I started this morning on the note of the Fed going to drain one trillion by negotiations with money funds which I know is absolute bunk. Then I see two events today of blatant QE while I hear how the Fed is going to drain huge amounts of the liquidity that was added to the market. Coming up next will be the EU having a plan to bailout Greece, but the ECB will not say what that plan is because they have no plan, only intentions.
 
Some people have observed that I know what gold is doing without looking because I feel it. Well, I do.
 
Right now I feel totally frustrated by the degree of misinformation spewing out of every form of media.
 
Nobody can be that stupid.
 
They are either all kissing up, or there is a Propaganda Czar who runs it. I will go with the former and a tad of the later plus the fact that Wall Street is a major investor in F-TV.
 
Is it possible that gold is fed up with the lies and distortions that are so apparent Mr. Fred barks at the TV? It is, and I sense it happened today.
 
We have been discussing over the last few days the fact that no currency on the planet is any longer a storehouse of value. We are headed into a system of taking a ticket to get bailed out sovereign wise.
 
The relationship between leading currency and gold is never going to be cancelled, but it is loosening.
 
Gold is your only good insurance policy.
 
Who knows, we may be long gold for a much greater period of time and price than I anticipated in 2001.
 
Respectfully yours,
Jim


Try and find the time to visit Jim's site its well worth it.

All the best.

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