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Wednesday
Aug072019

Gold: Rock, Paper, Scissors 

Preamble

Gold is at the starting gate of a major bull run, it is now ‘Game On’.

Talking of games, in the game commonly known as Rock, Paper, Scissors, rock beats scissors, paper beats rock and scissors beat paper. Gold has constantly lost to paper as evident by the correlation of sudden selling on the paper market and the corresponding reduction in the price of physical gold.

It is time that the scissors severed the link between paper and rock in order that physical gold can find its true value. In this article we will take a quick look at both the paper market and the physical market for gold

First a word of warning,

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Wednesday
Jul312019

The Feds Rate Cut Sends The US Dollar Higher and Gold Lower

Preamble

Monetary policy has long been influential in gold's fortunes. In recent times, the Fed has used bond buying and reductions to interest rates as the economy faltered. This action serves the purpose of providing more and cheaper funds for the markets to function. We have been through a sustained period of monetary easing which has resulted in the S&P 500 climbing to record highs. The Fed then decided to "normalize" rates in that it wanted to raise rates to around 6% in order to provide the wriggle room needed to offset a downturn in economic activity. A series of rate hikes was then implemented, but the Fed failed to get anywhere near its stated aim.

The Federal Reserve Reduces Rates

This week, faced with a perceived faltering economy,

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Sunday
Jul282019

Its Time To Rotate Out Of The S&P 500 And Into Precious Metals

Preamble

Rotation in the stock market isn’t new investors have been switching from sector to another since the markets were formed. The S&P500 has been in the ascendancy for approximately ten years and is due for a correction. The question for those involved is where to go next and there are many opportunities available to them. To name just a few there is land, property, art, antiques, autos, jewelry, gold and silver, etc. Some of these alternative investments are already considered to be in a bubble apart from gold and silver which is a sector that has taken a beaten over the last few years.

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Wednesday
Jul242019

Precious Metal Stocks Are Not An Investment They Are A Speculation 

Preamble

Let’s start by defining investment and speculation and for this purpose I have used Investopedia:

An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation.

Speculation refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value

Precious metals such as physical gold and physical silver are an investment and can be acquired and held for long periods of time.

Precious metals mining sector

The precious metals mining sector is not an investment for the simple reason

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Monday
Jul222019

Gold And Silver Stocks: Buy As Monetary Policy Is Relaxed

Preamble

Gold and silver stocks had been out of favor for years and as a result they have had to cut costs dramatically in order to avoid bankruptcy. The largely unhedged stocks as represented by the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI, fell from an all-time high of 630 down to 100 registering a loss of 84% reduction in their market capitalization.  

In June 2019 the HUI stood at 145 and since then as managed to regain some of its value by rallying to 210 for a gain of 45% in less than 2 months.

Why the sudden interest

The main reason for this sudden change is the anticipated demise of the US Dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on the 30th and 31st of July and it is a given that they will cut interest rates by twenty-five or possibly fifty basis points. This action by the FOMC signals to the market that all is not well, and they are trying to get ahead of the curve as the economy falters. This relaxation in monetary policy will weaken the US dollar and gold which has an inverse relationship with the US dollar will cost more in US Dollar terms as the US Dollar declines in value.

Central bankers will take a similar course of action in order to support the world economy as it begins to sputter. For instance,

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Wednesday
Jul172019

Is The Future For Silver Shiny Or Not? (Part Two)

Background

In January 2019 we penned an article entitled: Is The Future For Silver Shiny Or Not? In which we said:

1. Every picture tells a story, so we will take a quick look at the chart of silver's progress, and it is not a pretty sight

2. There have been a number of rallies which have added some cheer for silver bugs to celebrate, but these rallies didn't have the legs to mount a serious challenge to previous all-time highs and in hindsight turned out to be head fakes.

We are now seven months further down the line and the ugly face of silver appears to be undergoing a face lift.

Ten-year silver chart  

  

The last eight years

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Monday
Jul012019

Gold: Driven By The US Dollar And Hampered By The S&P 500 

Preamble

We recently penned an article entitled: Gold To Obliterate The $1350/Oz Resistance Level and this has certainly happened as gold recently traded as high as $1425/Oz. We also said the following:

This resistance level needs to be obliterated with some gusto and gold needs to find the traction to take out the next resistance level before making new highs. 

A lot depends now on monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve which would weaken the dollar and due to its inverse relationship with gold, strengthen gold. 

After six years in the doldrums gold has suddenly come to life however

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Tuesday
Jun252019

Gold Obliterates the resistance at $1350/Oz level

Taking a quick look at the above chart of gold we can see that is has obliterated its stubborn resistance level of $1350/Oz as per our previous article entitled:

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Wednesday
Jun192019

Gold Spikes To 6Y Highs As Dollar, Bond Yields Plunge

The 10Y US Treasury yield is now down 11bps from the FOMC Statement, plunging back below 2.00% for the first time since November 2016, erasing almost the entire move since President Trump was elected...

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Monday
May202019

European Politics And Its Indirect Effect On Gold Prices

Preamble

The European elections take place this Thursday in the UK and the polling suggests a win by a large majority by the Brexit Party which was formed just 5 weeks ago. Some bookmakers have the Brexit Party at 1:20 with the second place going to the Labour Party at 20:1, in their eyes the Brexit Party will win the most seats by a large majority. As I have said before the last thing that the EU wants is the return of Nigel Farage as his stance for independence and democracy causes restlessness within other nation states.

If the EU can throw the British PM a bone and she in turn can persuade a few of the opposition MPs to vote for the three times rejected EU treaty, then it might pass. Theresa May intends to ask her cabinet to sign off a package of Brexit concessions this week, as she ramps up for one last bid to win over MPs and salvage her version of Brexit.

If that happens then the UK will be out of the EU in terms of having representation but tied in via the new treaty and as a result that would be unpalatable for many in the UK. The fight for democracy in the UK will not stop regardless of parliamentary decisions so I expect that this issue is not going to be put to bed for some time.

The lack of clarity surrounding this issue is having a negative affect on both the Pound and the Euro and thus the US Dollar glistens by comparison and remains strong.

To summarize the US Dollar Index is made up of a basket of currencies including the Pound sterling at 11.9% and the Euro at 57.6%. When these two currencies are under pressure and head south the US Dollar becomes the beneficiary and remains buoyant.

The US Dollar has an inverse relationship with gold so as the US Dollar strengthens gold prices weaken. We have been through a phase of rate hikes in the US which now appears to be over. The next move could be a rate cut and if that was then followed with the reintroduction of QE the US Dollar would lose its gloss and commence a decline. It is this sort of ignition that will set the gold market on fire. Until then or until we experience a ‘Black Swan’ event gold prices will continue to trade sideways at best.

A Quick Look At The Charts

The chart below shows the steady advance of the US Dollar and its penetration of the resistance level at ‘97’ which now becomes a support level.

 

 

The chart below shows.........

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