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Wednesday
Jun212006

Dow Jones Gold Ratio

DOW JONES / GOLD RATIO

The driving force behind a gold bull is of course the key fundamentals backing it. However a key metric in determining relative future gold prices is the ratio between the gold price and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. How many ounces of gold does it take to buy the Dow Jones?

Over the last century or so, there have been three periods where 1 ounce or 2 ounces of gold could buy the Dow Jones Index.
It began in 1897, when the ratio was 1:1.
Then in 1929, just before the Wall Street Crash, it took 18 ounces of gold to by the Dow.
Three years later it took two ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones.
In 1966, it surged to 28 ounces and by 1980, one ounce of gold bought the DJIA.
However in July of 1999, it took 44 ounces to buy the DJIA. This was at the height of the dotcom explosion.
It now takes 19 ounces to buy the Dow Jones, with the index trading around 11,000.

There are many ways that you can interpret this ratio, to predict the height of the gold prices in this bull market.

· The DJIA/Gold ratio pattern is 1:1, 1:2, 1:1 and so the next ratio could be 1:2. Two ounces to buy the Dow Jones
· If you ignore the 1897 data, the DJIA/Gold ratio pattern is 1:2, 1:1 and so the next ratio will be 1:0.5, it will take half an ounce of gold to buy the Dow Jones
· The average of all the ratios is 1:1.333. So in future one and a third ounces of gold will by the Dow Jones

Of course this is only half of the equation. To make it complete you need the value of the DJIA. In previous situations, such as 1929, the Dow has fallen to meet the gold price. However in the recession during the 1960’s and 1970’s, the DJIA did not fall dramatically to meet gold, but gold prices rose to meet it.
So what could happen?

· The DJIA crashes and loses 90% of its value (as it did in 1929) leaving it at around 1100 and it falls to a ratio with gold of: 1:2=$550 1:1=$1100, 1:0.5=$2200
· The DJIA halves to 5500 and gold rises to meet it at a ratio of: 1:2=$2250, 1:1=$5500, 1:0.5=$11000
· The DJIA stays around its current value (at it did during the 60’s and 70’s) and gold rises to equal the Dow at a ratio of: 1:2=$5500, 1:1=$11000, 1:0.5=$22000

The Dow Jones is unlikely to lose 90% of its value and replicate the 1929 crash, as this was largely affected by WW1 debt.
Therefore, whatever ratio or Dow value you choose, gold prices should be significantly higher over the coming years.
Tuesday
Jun202006

Silverado Gold Mines Ltd

Silveradogold
SILVERADO GOLD MINES LTD

Silverado is small cap gold exploration company with focus on their Nolan Gold project in Fairbanks, Alaska.

The Nolan Gold project contains a variety of high-class gold nuggets. In fact, 98% of the gold recovered is of jewellery quality. Therefore Silverado have been gaining an average premium of 67% on their gold sales. Therefore their gold is currently selling for around $1000/oz. This means that if gold prices go up $100, Silverado’s gold is worth $167 more. This means that they benefit more from rising gold prices and are protected from any possible decrease in the gold price as they will still receive the high quality premium.

Another interesting spin to this company is that they are currently working on a coal-based alternative fuel. This environmentally friendly fuel would act a replace for oil. Oil reserves are rapidly disappearing, however the USA has over 200 years worth of coal.

This is a good company with nearly 20 years of experience of gold exploration in Alaska and an exciting alternative fuel development program.

See silverado.com for more information.

Silveradograph
Monday
Jun192006

Bema Gold Mining Corp

Bema Gold Corporation is a mid sized gold producer with a market Capitalisation of $2 billion. At the time of writing it is trading at $4.56 in New York, it also trades on the TSX as BGO and on the AIM market in London as BAU.
Bema is one of the world’s fastest growing gold producers with projected production of one million ounces of gold annually by 2009.
Bema operates in Russia, South Africa, Chile and Russia. As an unhedged miner Bema’s stock price is sensitive to gold’s movement. This is a well-managed company with terrific potential for growth as the gold price rises.

Bema Gold Corp

For more information view: Bema Gold Corp
Monday
Jun192006

Reasons to invest in Gold

Gold is money. Gold is a true store of wealth and has been used as such for thousands of years when other currencies have come and gone. Gold is now in the ascendancy along with gold producers, mining and exploration companies.

The reasons for this gold price increase are as follows:

· No new large discoveries of gold deposits dampening supply
· Lack of previous investment for gold exploration
· It takes up to 10 years to bring a new mine to production
· Falling gold production worldwide adding to its scarcity
· Gold EFTs take gold off the market thus reducing supply
· In the last Bull Run 70s to 80s gold prices increased 20 fold
· Metrics: DJIA vs. Gold, about 19ozs buys the dow jones, it has been 1:1 in the past and could be again in the future. Assuming the dow jones remains above 10,000 then the gold price could hit $10,000
· Gold at its previous high of $850 adjusted for inflation puts the gold price at $2000 plus
· Geopolitical uncertainty, a nuclear Iran creates world tension which pushes up the price of gold
· A Dictatorial South America imposing restrictions such as increased taxation and nationalisation will deter investment and reduce gold production
· India is growing and the sleeping dragon of China has awoken, their hunger for gold will drive gold prices higher
· Internet: information travels around the world in a nano-second, reactions to news, true or false, will add to the volatility of the gold price
· Web trading: increasing everyday, resulting in the trends being more exaggerated than ever before
· The mania that I traded in during the last Bull market will be nothing compared to the coming Gold price explosion and maniacal actions of traders and everyday people in the precious metals sector.


We predict gold prices of $10,000 in 5 years
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