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Gold is still a Dollar Play


It is been a very frustrating time for Gold Bugs as gold has been unable to break out above the $1350 level for the last 5 years.

The chart above shows the number of times gold has attempted this break out above this resistance level and has failed once again.

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The US Dollar Recovers To Spook Gold


Since the last all-time high of $1900/Oz made in 2011 Gold Bugs have taken it on the chin as gold fell from grace resulting in many investors leaving this space in search of greener pastures. In recent years gold has levelled out and is indeed shaping up for a comeback as it once again eyes the near-term resistance level of $1350/Oz.

For many investors breaching this level

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Gold To Obliterate The Resistance Level Of $1350/Oz 


It feels like a distance memory since gold traded at the heady heights of $1900/Oz, since then the bears have been in control and gold has been savaged along with the associated mining stocks.

However, since 2016 gold has been making somewhat of a comeback and is now trading close to $1350/Oz. This is a level that it has tried to pierce on 6 or more occasions and failed as each rally ran out of steam, they were head fakes disguised as a rally. This resistance level needs to be obliterated with some gusto and gold needs to find the traction to take out the next resistance level which is $1400/Oz before there is more or less a clear run to $1800/Oz and then new all-time highs of $2000/Oz and beyond for gold.

A quick look at the gold chart

The above chart shows the resistance

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The Beaten Down Gold Sector Starts To Punch Back


We have long held the opinion that the fortunes of the precious metals sector is largely dependent on the action or lack of it by the Central Bankers. Of note is the Federal Reserve who have now taken their foot off the accelerator regarding rate hikes in the US. We have stated that we doubt that we will get any rate hikes this year and we might even get a rate cut as the Fed remains “data driven” and has adopted a dovish stance regarding monetary policy.

Central Bank actions regarding monetary policy

There are also other Central Bankers which we need to be aware of as their actions can contribute to the expansion or contraction of the money supply such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE), etc. On Tuesday the governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, gave notice that the central bank was ready to ramp up stimulus if sharp rises in the yen damaged the Japanese economy and undermined his strategy of achieving a 2% inflation target. As we all know money knows no boundaries and will migrate across borders in the blink of an eye. Inflating the money supply tends to weaken a currency and the Yen did fall on this news from the BOJ. It is difficult to make a direct correlation between the Yen weakening and gold prices rising but gold did trade higher following this piece of news.

On the horizon the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi and the governor of the BOE, Mark Carney, are soon to leave their posts. The loss of familiar faces creates a certain amount of uncertainty as we do not know who will replace them and what sort of strategy they will adopt when managing monetary policy. If the replacements are of a dovish disposition, then we would expect gold and silver to be the beneficiaries.

Gold Surges To 11 Month Highs

As we can see from the chart below gold has reacted positively since the golden crossover so we would now like to see gold prices get above the $1370.00/Oz level and settle there. The technical indicators remain in the overbought zone suggesting a near term pullback, but they could also stay there for some time before unwinding. Gold has rallied well since Labour Day and is gaining a tad more air time which is positive for gold bugs.


Gold Miners Are finally on the move

The precious metals stocks are now flirting......................

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Andrew Maguire: Gold & Silver 2011 Coiling Action Continues – Will Send Gold Vaulting Above $1,400

As the world edges closer to the next crisis, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies, told King World News that the price of gold is about to skyrocket as we enter the “Dark Years.” After telling King World News on January 25, that pullbacks in gold and silver would be very shallow and short-lived, which is exactly what transpired, today London whistleblower and metals trader Andrew Maguire told KWN that gold and silver continue to remain in a coiling phase similar to 2011 that will send gold vaulting quickly above $1,400.

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Gold Bugs Index HUI Stands To Gain As Bullion Prices Rally


The precious metal market has experienced great difficulty for the last 6 years or so as gold and silver prices were beaten down. However, they are now moving higher largely due to a stock market that is in a corrective mode and a Federal Reserve that is in dovish mode. Investors in the stock market are looking to rotate into new market sectors and the Fed’s rate hike cycle looks to have come to an end removing support from the US Dollar. As the dollar weakens gold prices improve as they have an inverse relationship.

Our expectation is that the precious metals stocks will become more profitable and therefore more attractive to the investment community and could even become the “Darlings” of market as the media begins to feature them more often and without the distaste that they have for them at the moment.

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Gold Prices Taking A Breather Or Something Worse?


I first traded gold back in 1980 and have been active in this sector of the market ever since then. However, as a Gold Bug at heart I am not a Perma-Bull and at different times I have been long or short in this space through via the normal buying and selling methods and also by utilizing the options market to generate profits.

Being a Perma-Bull or Perma-Anything makes no sense to me as the market goes up and comes down. It is all about being positioned on the right side of a market sector, being with it and not against it. If you have to be a bear at times so be it, it is better than losing your shirt.

Preamble on Gold and Silver

As we understand it in 2018 Central Banks bought 651 tonnes of gold and are showing a renewed interest in the precious metals sector, which if true, is very good news for the demand side of this commodity. We have also read a number of articles by some of the big banks who are predicting higher prices for gold going forward. If their research could be relied on and assuming that they didn’t want to see the price go higher in order to unload some of their holdings, then this would also be good news for gold and silver.




Overbought gold to correct in the near term, but long term will go higher




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SSR Mining Inc Continues To Mature 


A few years ago, the formally named Silver Standard changed their name to SSR Mining (NASDAQ: SSRM), to better reflect their involvement in both silver and gold mining activities. The previous name suggested that it was predominantly a silver producer, however since acquiring the Marigold gold mine in Nevada the newly named SSR Mining Inc is now largely a gold producer.

On 4th July 2017 we posted an article entitled; “Silver Standard Is Now In The Bargain Basement: Buy” and since then the stock has had a torrid time along with most of the precious metals mining operators but of late has showed considerable strength. Fast forward nineteen months and the picture has improved dramatically for SSRM as it could have been acquired for $9.24 back then and today the cost would be in the order of $13.88, registering a gain of 50.2%

At the time of acquisition gold was trading at around $1210/Oz and today it stands at $1313/Oz. However not all in this sector have been so fortunate as the Gold Bugs Index, the HUI clearly demonstrates. The HUI stood at 180 back in July 2017 and today it stands at 168 registering a loss of 6.7% over the same period that SSR Mining Inc made very good progress.

A Quick Look At The Chart Of SSR Mining

The chart below shows the acceleration of the stock price over the last six months and the steepness of the ascent suggests that it may have ran too far too fast. The technical indicators such as the RSI which stands at 74.78 is firmly in the oversold zone, likewise with the MACD and the STO both of which look set to rollover and head south.


In July 2017 we wrote:

Silver Standard trades on the ......

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Gold And The mining Stocks Come Alive 


After 6 torrid years in the precious metals sector of the market gold and the associated mining stocks have given us a glimmer of hope.

There are two main drivers behind this, the first is that the markets in general are retreating and investors are looking for alternative market sectors for their investment funds. The S&P500 hit the dizzy heights of 2900 before correcting to 2350 and then bounced to around 2681. Having had a ten-year run a correction is to be expected and we are of the opinion that there is more to come on the downside, with the precious metals sector being the beneficiary.

The second driver is

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Miners discover gold, but few celebrating: New Zealand

New Talisman Gold Mines has spent $1.8 million over 18 months to get the century-old mine in Mount Karangahake near Waihi back in to production.

A small company wanting to extract gold from a mine on conservation land fears for the future of the industry in the face of red tape, local hostility and official indifference.

New Talisman Gold Mines has spent $1.8 million over 18 months to get the century-old mine in Mount Karangahake near Waihi back in to production.

Click to read more ...