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Wednesday
Mar012017

Brexit 02 March 2017

Theresa May will be forced to order MPs to throw out an immediate guarantee that 3 million EU nationals can stay in Britain, after a humiliating defeat in the House of Lords.

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Tuesday
Feb282017

Fed’s Dudley says case for interest-rate hike has become ‘a lot more compelling’

The case for an interest-rate hike has become “a lot more compelling,” a crucial Federal Reserve official said in a statement that moved markets.

In an interview with CNN International, New York Fed President William Dudley on Tuesday said that “animal spirits have been unleashed a bit” in the wake of the presidential election, pointing to the rise in the stock market.

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Monday
Feb272017

James Turk – “The Shorts Are Choosing To Fight” Despite The Fact That “Silver Is The Cheapest Asset On The Planet”

Today James Turk told King World News that the shorts are choosing to fight despite the fact that silver is the cheapest asset on the planet.

“The Advance May Slow”
James Turk: 
 “
There was a flurry of short covering in silver last week, Eric, pretty much on time and as I expected. Gold, as well, saw some short covering,

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Wednesday
Feb222017

Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields

In the years following the GFC, short end yields in the US were contained for an extended period of time as the Fed committed to keeping rates on hold. Given the static nature of the short end, and the shift of monetary policy implications further out the curve through QE programs, long end US rates became the focus. When discussing the drivers of gold prices, long end US real rates (the yield on inflation protected bonds) was the critical factor. However over the past couple of years, the Fed has hiked rates twice, and we now have live meetings with an active short end. This has reduced the impact of long end real rates on gold, and instead shifted the focus to the short end. We now form our view on gold prices overwhelming based on short end rates, as opposed to long end yields. Our bearish view on gold prices is derived from a Fed hike in June.

The Historical Correlation

Looking back at the relationship between gold prices and US real rates there is a solid case. We wrote about it at length through 2010-2012

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Tuesday
Feb212017

Gold Sector Update – What Stance is Appropriate? 

The Technical Picture – a Comparison of Antecedents


We wanted to post an update to our late December post on the gold sector for some time now (see “Gold – Ready to Spring Another Surprise?” for the details). Perhaps it was a good thing that some time has passed, as the current juncture seems particularly interesting.

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Monday
Feb202017

Alan Greenspan: Ron Paul Was Right About The Gold Standard

 As John Rubino eloquently puts it, "when the history of these times is written, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan will be one of the major villains, but also one of the greatest mysteries. This is so because he has, in effect, been three different people." Greenspan started his public life brilliantly, as a libertarian thinker who said some compelling and accurate things about gold and its role in the world.

 

 

An example from 1966:

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Tuesday
Feb142017

Fed Chair Yellen: 'Unwise' to wait too long to hike interest rates

Waiting too long to raise interest rates would be "unwise" as economic growth continues and inflation rises, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told Congress on Tuesday.

Repeating caution that she and other central bank officials have issued in recent months, Yellen said that even though the Fed expects to hike gradually and to keep policy accommodative, getting rates back to normal levels is important and hikes will be considered ahead.

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Thursday
Feb092017

Fed's Bullard says rates can remain low through 2017

U.S. interest rates can likely remain low through at least 2017, with no clear sense yet of whether the Trump administration's policies will spark higher inflation or growth, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Thursday.

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Wednesday
Feb082017

MPs reject Brexit bill amendment to protect EU citizens in UK

 

Measure to force government to give all EU citizens living in Britain permanent residency defeated 332-290

 

Attempts to force the government to give all EU citizens in the UK permanent residency after Britain leaves the bloc have been defeated.

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Tuesday
Feb072017

The Price Of Gold If The U.S. Was Still On The Gold Standard

Summary

The U.S. was on a bi-metal or gold standard up until the "Nixon Shock" of 1971.

What would the value of gold per ounce need to be today to backstop the amount of U.S. currency currently in circulation?

While it is a purely hypothetical exercise, the answer is meaningful and may surprise you .

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