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Wednesday
Apr102013

A US$ Retreat Could Ignite the Precious Metals market

The recent rally in the US$ was more a product of the fall in other currencies than a strengthening of the dollar. In particular we have seen the British Pound fall dramatically in the first two months of this year and this was followed by the Japanese Yen which tumbled recently on the inflationary actions introduced by the Bank of Japan. The value of a position in the precious metals sector would have increased for those living in the UK or Japan, but for investors living in the United States the strength of the dollar has eroded the value of their holdings in the gold and silver space.

The US$ Chart:

The above chart shows the rally commencing in February at the ‘79’ level and progressing up to the ‘83’ level where it falters and pulls back slightly. This maybe just a breather before resuming its trek north or it could retrace its steps all the way back to the ‘79’ level. Should it fall through ‘79’ then ‘74’ and ‘72’ could be tested in short order. We would also draw your attention to that it was unable to form a higher high which suggests further weakness lies ahead.

The Gold Chart:

Gold prices have faded badly since the October high of $1800.00/oz despite continual money printing by various sovereign states. The recent jobs numbers out of the US were very poor indeed, but gold didn’t react with the gusto that we would have expected. Also note that the stress and upheaval emanating from the Cypriot banking system hardly moved gold.

Conclusion:

On the downside the $1550.00/oz level appears to be an area of support for gold prices, however, should that fail then many will be disheartened and tempted to capitulate. On the upside gold prices needs to break up through the 50dma at $1609.00 and then through the 200dma at $1663. This doesn’t sound like a lot to do but it would go a fair way in restoring investor confidence. Another stumbling block is the summer season which is now upon us and gold and silver prices tend to drift from here to Labor Day with very little in the way of action in either direction.

The fiasco surrounding the Cypriot banking system hardly moved gold but it has put the spot light on the possibility of the implementation of similar ‘Bail In’ strategies as a solution, should other banks find themselves in difficulty. This is a Eurozone problem and it remains to be seen if the flight to safety will be to the precious metals sector or to alternative currencies, such as the US dollar.

It’s a difficult call, shaky banks, money printing, government spending and borrowing at record levels, gold and silver out of favor and the summer doldrums. If we then add to the mix political unrest from Korea to Italy, the Arab Spring, unrest in Africa, the outlook is none to bright.  

As we see it the dollar could well have the upper hand in the short term, but it is a fiat currency and as such is destined to head south. Sooner or later gold and silver will be recognized as real money and become the investor’s safe haven of choice in this tumultuous environment.

With gold, silver and Uranium stocks being out of favor one must decide if this is a problem or an opportunity. We have steadfastly refused to buy gold and silver mining stocks for the last two years and as evidenced by the HUI we feel that our decision to hold back has been vindicated. The damage done to the mining sector may not be over yet but this demise is starting to offer up some exciting opportunities in my view.

Great care will be needed in the selection process in order to generate a reasonable profit and that’s where our new venture begins. ‘Stock Trader’ has begun trading on behalf of ourselves and our much valued subscribers, all exciting stuff which we are really looking forward to, if you wish to join us then please subscribe below;

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Reader Comments (2)

Today The Daily Bell posted an article suggesting that certain countries are deliberately depreciating their currencies in order to support the $USA .

Immediately when Japan announced it was going to depreciate its currency to "increase economic activity and inflation," I looked at this as complete bullshit. What happened is that Japan got the message from Big Boy Bully to buy $USD, or else, and buy big. Funny that so many commentators have even considered that scenario.
As for Britain and the and the USA? Incestuous for sure.

Regards

April 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterDC

If you flood the market with a commodity, at some point it is inevitable that the value will drop.
The US dollar is nothing more than a commodity that is traded by others. The biggest trader is
the Chinese government. I am no expert, but in reading other articles, and how trading in the
two most important commodities, the dollar and Gold, occurs, I am guessing that the Chinese have
found a work around solution to their glut of US dollars. They can accumulate Gold and still
maintain their dollar position. The question is, how long will they do this. There are indications
that they are beginning to work away from the dollar by signing major contracts with other countries
in currencies other than the US dollar.

In the meantime, they continue to accumulate Gold. By purchasing the Gold with US dollars, which is
the common practice, they move out some of their surplus. They take physical possession of the Gold
and then they lease the Gold to other countries and banks for US dollars. The Gold does not leave China,
it is just a paper transaction. This keeps their dollar level up, and prevents the decline in value of the US dollar.
It helps to keep the price of Gold down. The question is, how long will they do this? When they decide to
quit, they just buy back all the outstanding “leased gold” with their accumulation of worthless US dollars.
This is just a theory, but one that I believe is quite possible.

April 11, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterAB

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