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« SK Option Trader Closes Short VIX trade for a 19.16% Annualized Return | Main | Ready, Steady, GOLD »

Gold Stocks Got You Down? This History Lesson Will Pick You Up…

By Kevin Brekke, Casey Research

If you own any, it might seem that gold stocks have been underwater for a long time, and that the bull market is over.

Yet, the chart below tells me that likely as not, those with the courage to buy when others panic will be the big winners in gold.

It shows that those who bought gold stocks in '74-'75 when everyone else was buying eventually made money…. but those who bought when others were selling in '76 went on to make a killing.

So recently, while veteran gold investors are little concerned and see the markdowns as a buying opportunity, it's raised the ire of more than a few newer investors.

The extent and duration of the selloff in gold equities has spurred much speculation about the health of the trend, summed up neatly as, "Does it mean the bull market is over?"

Hardly. And for one fundamental reason that we at Casey Research – especially Jeff Clark in BIG GOLD – have stated more than once:

The drivers for gold are far from over, which will eventually propel stock prices higher.

History shows that lagging equities during a gold bull market are par for the course.

The chart below, comparing the current gold equities downturn with the one experienced during the middle of the last great gold bull market of the '70s, shows a similarity;

From April 1973 through July 1976, gold stocks as a group initially tripled in value – and then gave it all back.

You can see that the latest retracement is very similar in nature, though the initial climb was smaller and the downfall shorter.

It goes without saying that sentiment for gold stocks during the two-year selloff that commenced in 1974 was abysmal. Worry grew as stocks got cheaper and cheaper – and then cheaper still.

Even though the gold price was also falling, cries that the bull market in gold stocks was over grew. It seemed there was no money to be made in gold stocks.

Sound familiar?

Ultimately, the selloff did not end the trend. Gold resumed its climb in early 1976, and gold stocks mimicked the ascent.

Then, in 1979, the mania started for both precious metals and the equities, culminating in the blow-off top of January 1980.

In retrospect, that 40-month retracement was one big fake-out.

My personal takeaway from this chart: those with the mettle to buy when others take flight will be the big winners this time, too.

As in any investment, knowledge is key. Sure, the buyers in '74-'75 made money eventually. But those who bought when others were selling in '76 did far better. 

Regarding We recently closed a trade involving the S&P which generated a profit of 25.61% and was opened just 8 days ago, the charts and stats have now been updated.

Our trading success rate is 91.00%

91 profitable trades out of 100.

Our model portfolio is up 455.14% since inception

An annualized return of 81.15%

Our annual performance figures are as follows:

2009 We made a profit of 23.89%

2010 We made a profit of 158.66%

2011 We made a profit of 40.95%

In 2011 we outperformed:

S&P by 42%

HUI by 53%

Gold by 31%

Silver by 41%

The 2011 Annual Report by be accessed via this link.


Also many thanks to those of you who have already joined us and for the very kind words that you sent us regarding the service so far, we hope that we can continue to put a smile on your faces.

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Reader Comments (1)

This ,to me, is why gold is NOT a buy and hold commodity. If you bought at the low ,sold at the high, and then bought after it retraced you would make a lot more than just holding long term in a bull market. Holding long term during retracements in less volatile markets makes sense ,but not precious metals.

August 27, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterGold Bug

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