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« Barrick Gold Corporation: Buy, Sell or Hold? | Main | A Thanksgiving Gift Idea! »
Friday
Oct142011

Is It Time to Load up on Gold Stocks?

By Jeff Clark, Casey Research

By almost any measure, gold stocks are undervalued. Should we load up?

After completing my research on this question, I’m convinced more than ever that we at Casey Research are in the right place. See if you agree…

Let’s first get a handle on the degree of undervaluation. The more undervalued, the lower the buying risk. A fairly valued stock, on the other hand, requires added caution.

Gold accelerated higher last month, peaking around $1,900/ounce, while gold stocks lagged. Here’s a chart of the HUI-to-gold ratio (HGR). In a rising gold environment, a climbing HGR indicates that gold stocks are outperforming the metal; a falling HGR means they’re trailing gold.

Today’s 0.33 HGR means gold stocks as a group have not been this cheap, relative to their underlying metal, since January 2010. And a lower ratio hasn’t been seen since February 2009, when recovering from the 2008 global meltdown.

Also consider that the GDX (Gold Miners ETF) is about the same price as last December, while gold is up 30%.

I think there’s a more compelling situation that demonstrates the undervalued nature of gold stocks. It’s hard to read a mining company’s quarterly report these days without hearing about “growing margins.” The gold price has risen faster than operating costs across our industry and lifted profit margins of the better-run producers.

Higher margins are key to growing earnings and cash flow, which in turn lead to rising stock prices. Have gold mining equities kept pace with ever-increasing margins?

Gold mining companies are earning record margins, averaging a whopping $1,268 per ounce last quarter. In both nominal dollars and percentage above costs, margins have never been this high for the gold producers. Stock prices, however, have not responded in similar fashion.

This is a potentially significant point, because margins of this magnitude will be ignored only so long. When the broader investing community begins to take notice, investors will snap up these highly profitable stocks and push prices higher. The “catch up” in gold stocks could be tremendous.

The conclusions from these data seem clear: Gold stocks, as a group, are undervalued. The incredible profit margins generated by our sector will attract investors – sooner or later. And picking the better stocks, like most of those in BIG GOLD, is more profitable than buying a gold stock fund.

We’re in the right place.

The question, of course, is timing. We don’t know when gold stocks will begin to catch up. And the data don’t suggest they must rise right now or that they’ve hit bottom. Contributing to their price weakness is concern that the recent surge in the gold price isn’t sustainable. I can also tell you that the “Casey consensus” sees the risk of another significant decline in the broader markets as a distinct possibility, and if one materializes, gold stocks could undergo a temporary swoon.

We’re convinced they’ll someday hit lofty levels, but for now we maintain the same refrain: keep one-third of assets in cash. This reduces risk and gives us a nice pile of funds to deploy during any selloffs.

In the big picture, gold has ratcheted steadily higher throughout the rallies and corrections, a trend we’re confident will continue for some time. As the price sets new highs and margins remain robust, our sector will attract more attention. We must patiently stay the course until those new realities begin to set in.

Make sure you have exposure to gold stocks, but it’s not yet time to jump in, yelling “Geronimo!”

[As fiat currencies accelerate their inevitable paths to eventual destruction, gold will ascend. How far and how fast remain to be seen, but you can get insights and actionable advice on gold and gold stocks – and much, much more – from the recently held Casey Research/Sprott Summit, When Money Dies. You can learn what legendary investors like Rick Rule and Doug Casey are doing and recommending… get invaluable insights from analysts including Adam Fergusson and Lew Rockwell… from audio recordings of the entire event that are available to order now.]

 

[Just a quick note to say that we have almost completed the transfer our web sites and now have them ensconced in Squarespace.

If you are not receiving our newsletters then please let us know and we will re-enter your names from this end. However, we are given to understand that the sign up box is working as it should, so that's one we can tick off.

We have also added an 'Archive' category and a 'Search' facility.

The comments box is now working, although you wont see your comments until they have been approved by us, this is in order to prevent spam from getting onto the site, however, we are looking into ways of allowing a more direct commentary for our regular contributors.]

Thanks once again for your patience while we battle with the vagaries of cyberspace and the associated techno babble!

Bob K

Regarding www.skoptionstrading.com. We currently have a number of open trades at the moment however, we do not update the charts until the trade is closed and the cash is back in our account. 

Our model portfolio is up 407.38% since inception

An annualized return of 113.83%%

Average return per trade of 42.43%

86 closed trades, 83 closed at a profit

Average trade open for 45.85 days

So, the question is: Are you going to make the decision to join us today.

Stay on your toes and have a good one.

Also many thanks to those of you who have already joined us and for the very kind words  that you sent us regarding the service so far, we hope that we can continue to put a smile on your faces.

To stay updated on our market commentary, which gold stocks we are buying and why, please subscribe to The Gold Prices Newsletter, completely FREE of charge. Simply click here and enter your email address.  Winners of the GoldDrivers Stock Picking Competition 2007 

For those readers who are also interested in the silver bull market that is currently unfolding, you may want to subscribe to our  Free Silver Prices Newsletter.

For those readers who are also interested in the nuclear power sector you may want to subscribe to our Free Uranium Stocks Newsletter, just click here. 

 

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