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« Gold and Silver Dominate the ETF Charts | Main | Doug Casey on “Brexit” »
Tuesday
Aug022016

Trump Says It's Time To Sell Stocks, Warns Of "Very Scary Scenarios" For Investors

It is hardly a secret that few things could help Trump's presidential campaign as much as a stock market crash.

As we reported back in January, while Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, Presidential candidates worry about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes. The reason for this is that historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House… the incumbent party or the challenger. Since 1928, there have been 22 Presidential Elections. In 14 of them, the S&P 500 climbed during the three months preceding election day. The incumbent President or party won in 12 of those 14 instances. However, in 7 of the 8 elections where the S&P 500 fell over that three month period, the incumbent party lost.

There are only three exceptions to this correlation: 1956, 1968, and 1980. Statistically, the market has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election!

A simple explanation for this relationship is because the stock market reflects, at least in theory, the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election; in practice - now that central banks push up the market the worse the global economy gets - it is the opposite, but a rising stock market certainly does miracles to one's sense of financial net worth, and an unwillingness to deviate from the status quo. Clearly, a rising stock market indicates an "improving economy", something Obama has pointed out so many times in the past several years, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

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Someone else who doesnt like the stock market - maybe he'll buy gold instead....

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